Tracking the flu
In a recent project, researchers said they could predict when the flu season was going to peak in New York City. The researchers made the right prediction seven weeks before the peak hit. Johns Hopkins has had success with this in the past.
The technology has other uses, according to USA Today. It’s been used to track West Nile Virus. By entering the amount of rainfall and mosquitoes breeding rate, researchers can predict how bad an outbreak could be and who will be effected.
Researchers believe there will be a time in the near future where the technology can predict cholera outbreaks, and other life-threatening diseases. By knowing when and where the outbreak will land, health experts can ramp up vaccination campaigns, educate the public about safety protocols and attempt to prepare for the outbreak.
The weather doesn’t control everything
While winds and rain do play a role in the spread of a disease, researchers warn that human behavior can drastically modify these models.
Critics aren’t sold on the computer models. Without being able to predict human behavior and not having 100% success in the prediction of disease, some researchers think the technology is a waste of time.
Still, there are researchers who are optimistic. “It’s certainly exciting,” said Lyn Finelli, the
CDC’s flu surveillance chief. She said the CDC supports weather-based computer models but says the agency is eager to see follow-up studies showing the model can predict flu trends in places different from New York, like Miami.
Your Thoughts?
Do weather-based disease predictions have a future or is it a waste of money? Tell us your thoughts in the comment section below.
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